An Agent of Chaos: The Joker Looms from his Hideout

(Photo Source: Denver Post Twitter)

Karl-Anthony Towns. Joel Embiid. Kristaps Porzingis. They are in the limelight for leading a great youth movement amongst the big-men. But outside of the spotlight, deep in a gold mine, a shadowy giant smirks in a corner, ready to introduce anarchy as an agent of chaos.

The Joker. A Serbian one that is.

Nikola Jokic is a name that will be etched in your memory book one way or another, sooner than later. No, he will come and etch it himself if you do not do so quickly, because he is set to terrorize the opposing defenses for the next decade, and assert himself as a MVP candidate year after year, something his fellow countryman and unbelievably hyped Darko Milicic failed to do.

His 2016-2017 stats are, yes, modest at first glance. As of March 11th, he is averaging 16.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 4.6 APG, 0.8 STL, and 0.8 BLK in 27.1 minutes. The line is the epitome of “good, not great”, especially when compared side-by-side with the names I’ve mentioned earlier (and also Anthony Davis and Hassan Whiteside, because why not):

Modest, as I’ve said. However, there are key stats that catch my attention. Jokic’s FG% and APG. Let’s dig deeper.

Jokic's FG% is 5th highest among all qualifying players in the league, behind DeAndre Jordan (70.1), Rudy Gobert (64.9), Clint Capela (64.6), and Dwight Howard (64.0). And unlike them, Jokic has a high-post & mid-range game—and he’s astoundingly good at them. Jokic is converting at 60% from 5-9ft shots, 56.1% from 9-16ft, 51.6% from 16-24ft and even 37.4% from the 3-point line, all with usage rates above 10% per distance range, courtesy of nbaminer.com. Almost none of the leading FG% big men and the players I’ve compared can claim such versatility, except for Davis and Porzingis, and their percentages don’t come near Jokic’s. Jokic isn’t pulling a Chris “Birdman” Anderson, when he compiled over 80% FG% during 2013 playoffs with Miami Heat by feeding off tip-ins and dunks: he is shooting all across the half court and making them. He is an unmatched shooter, especially for his size.

His 4.6 APG is also 5th, this time among qualifying PF/C, behind Draymond Green (7.1), Blake Griffin (5.1), Al Horford (4.9), and Demarcus Cousins (4.7), all the meanwhile playing at least 6 minutes less per game. Convert the numbers per 36 minutes, and he is 2nd behind Green at 6.1. Flip on a Nuggets game, and you’ll see Jokic constantly scanning the floor, gearing up to throw darts and lobs to set up his teammates. Again, this is atypical for a PF/C to have great floor vision and basketball IQ. It is all the more reason for opposing defenses to fear him.

So you might say, okay so what, his splits as a whole is still lacking. It may not seem as if his vision, IQ, and shooting acumen are generating stats you expect for a player with this much hype. Well, I will now say that these averages are highly skewed to Jokic’s disadvantage, because he was stuck in Mike Malone’s doghouse for the first 2 months of the season. Yet even with the handicap, his stats are still quite comparable to his analogues.

It was looking like he was going through a sophomore slump through the first 20 games of the season. He scored double digit points just 7 times, collected double digit rebounds 4 times, and assisted more than 5 times only 3 times—and had only 3 double-double games. He lost his job to Jusuf Nurkic during the timeframe. He posted meager averages of 9.34 PPG, 6.72 RPG, 2.78 APG, 0.72 STL, 0.56 BLK at 50.4% FG% on 23:30 MPG—this screams “role player”. Frustration was mounting. It was ugly for the former All-Rookie First Teamer and ROY candidate.

However, since then, over 38 games, he is posting 19.2PPG, 10.4 RPG, 5.5 RPG, 0.84 STL, 0.89 BLK at 60.7% FG% on 28:50 MPG—quite the turnaround. This sudden spike in production has turned into more wins for the Nuggets too. Something clicked for him. Specifically, something clicked after the December 23rd game against the Hawks, where he fouled out in just 19 minutes of action and ended up costing his team a win by a possession, no less. Malone criticized Jokic’s inclination to commit unnecessary fouls, and said that he needed to take care of his foul trouble issues—and Jokic has. He’s reduced his personal fouls per game by 0.4 fouls, which is not an easy feat, demonstrating his growing maturity to recognize the problem, and ability to use his basketball IQ to put his solutions in action. Ever since that game, the Nuggets have compiled a 16-13 record, in stark contrast to a dismal 14-22 record in games before then or when he hasn’t played—and most importantly, no more foul trouble for Jokic.

I can imagine Malone’s smug reaction to Jokic’s fix. It is very reasonable to conclude that the Jusuf Nurkic trade was in consequence of Jokic’s exponential growth, and in absence of Nurkic, Jokic has been thriving even more (same applies for Nurkic as well; good for them). Growing trust in Jokic, and Jokic’s use of the trust to propel his play on the court are all feeding into a great synergy effect that is only bound to keep growing bigger.

The Joker was bounded by shackles, from divided playing time to personal frustration, through a good chunk of the season. Yet he has put up stats and the wins to place him among the ranks of rising stars of the NBA. It is almost scary to ponder what his ceiling might be—if there even is one. For the most part, we have already seen the ceilings of the young backcourts in the NBA, as partially described in the table early in the article. It is hard to foresee better stats for Towns, Whiteside, Embiid, Davis, Cousins, among many others, because they are being utilized to their maximum capacity in their systems and are the de-facto centerpieces of their franchises already.

Jokic? He is still growing into the role of a franchise player, eased in behind Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler as the leaders of the Nuggets. He has only teased his span of weapons that only Magic Johnson in the past, and maybe Giannis Antetokounmpo of the present can utilize, with his vision, passing, spacing, smarts, shooting, and raw physical presence in the paint. We have only seen glimpses of his game, yet he is already a rising star in the league. Imagine what he could do when he plays 30+ minutes a night, when the offense runs through him, and when the up-and-coming supporting cast of Gary Harris, Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray and Malik Beasley grow alongside him and fully mesh with his rhythm. We have the makings of a championship caliber team in the future. We have the makings of a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate in the future. The NBA should be on full alert of the Serbian Joker and his suicide squad (I know, I know, the movie was horrible; now put your pitchforks away).

So there he smirks in the dark corner. He hones his game in the recluse of the Rocky Mountains. He dissects game film with a keen eye in the dark film room. All the fame? He doesn’t need nor crave that—yet.

But, boy, when he is ready to step, no, force his way into the spotlight, you better be strapped in. The NBA will be sent into chaos once he is ready to show off his toys. Joker will be an agent of chaos—and there is no Batman to stop the assault.

All statistics are from the NBA.com unless noted otherwise.

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